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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 35

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 19

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 6-M.Ammendola 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.62 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model