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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 74

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.91 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model