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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
81.9%
JAX
18.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: +0.265 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.074 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.614 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DEN 29
–
JAX 19
Projected margin: DEN by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DEN

Graham Glasgow G Doubtful Illness
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Ankle
Jonas Griffith LB Questionable Back

JAX

Tre Herndon CB Out Knee
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Smith DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 23
–
JAX 13

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:27 TD JAX (9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 00:29 FG DEN (:29) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – JAX 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Brown]. DEN 9 – JAX 7
  • Q3 12:41 TD DEN (12:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – JAX 7
  • Q3 01:08 FG DEN (1:08) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 20 – JAX 7
  • Q4 05:45 FG DEN (5:45) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 23 – JAX 7
  • Q4 05:42 TD JAX 8-B.McManus kicks 67 yards from DEN 35 to JAX -2. 39-J.Agnew for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – JAX 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:29) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:47) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford. PENALTY on DEN-12-M.Ford, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 69%

    (8:39) 4-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:34) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 14 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 20 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to DEN 30 for 10 yards (22-K.Jackson).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

    (:24) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75% p(FG) 22%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 25-M.Gordon to JAX 23 for 30 yards (5-R.Ford).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:51) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (1:08) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 64 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 35 for 25 yards (54-D.Wilson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (13:33) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 89%

    (5:45) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 94%

    (2:58) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to JAX 15 for 1 yard (52-D.Hamilton).