4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 14

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:29) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model