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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 16
Denver Broncos 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13
What Actually Happened
(2:58) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to JAX 15 for 1 yard (52-D.Hamilton).
The Three Options
GO
+3.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.51 EP
- 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK
+1.83 EP
- 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
