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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 54

Denver Broncos 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford. PENALTY on DEN-12-M.Ford, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model