4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 27

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model