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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 65

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model