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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 64 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 35 for 25 yards (54-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model