4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to DEN 30 for 10 yards (22-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model