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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 4-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model