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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Saturday 2020-01-11 · 16:35 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIN
38.0%
SF
62.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • SF on 7 more days rest than MIN
  • MIN offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.139 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.264 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
SF 24
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

MIN

Mackensie Alexander CB Out Knee
Jayron Kearse S Out Toe
Adam Thielen WR Questionable Ankle

SF

Dee Ford DE Questionable Quadricep
Kentavius Street DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
SF 27

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD SF (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 05:30 TD MIN (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 19. 19-yac MIN 6 – SF 7
  • Q2 07:13 TD SF (7:13) 26-T.Coleman left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – SF 13
  • Q2 00:36 FG MIN (:36) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 10 – SF 14
  • Q3 10:47 FG SF (10:47) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. MIN 10 – SF 17
  • Q3 04:57 TD SF (4:57) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – SF 23
  • Q4 14:17 FG SF (14:17) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. MIN 10 – SF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:51) 2-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SF 34, Center-58-A.Cutting. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 39 for 5 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:57) 2-B.Colquitt punts 61 yards to SF 29, Center-58-A.Cutting. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 47 for 18 yards (91-S.Weatherly).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 18%

    (4:54) 2-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to SF 8, Center-58-A.Cutting. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 8 for no gain (38-K.Boyd).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 88%

    (:36) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (10:47) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:37) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to SF 17, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-31-A.Abdullah.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 18, RECOVERED by SF-31-R.Mostert at MIN 10. 31-R.Mostert to MIN 10 for no gain (35-M.Sherels).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (14:17) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:50) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to SF 14, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:08) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to MIN 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:06) 2-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SF 21, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:41) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 49%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs (41-E.Moseley).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 22%

    (1:49) 22-M.Breida up the middle to MIN 49 for 2 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at 50. 55-A.Barr to 50 for no gain (22-M.Breida).