Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(4:54) 2-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to SF 8, Center-58-A.Cutting. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 8 for no gain (38-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP

KICK -1.94 EP

18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
82% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model