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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs (41-E.Moseley).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model