Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(12:50) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to SF 14, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model