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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 18, RECOVERED by SF-31-R.Mostert at MIN 10. 31-R.Mostert to MIN 10 for no gain (35-M.Sherels).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP