Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(9:06) 2-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SF 21, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model