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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 10 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to SF 17, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-31-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model