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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 22-M.Breida up the middle to MIN 49 for 2 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at 50. 55-A.Barr to 50 for no gain (22-M.Breida).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model