Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: -0.216 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.254 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.194 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- PIT defense: -0.197 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to PIT: Robert Griffin (BAL) -0.135 vs Devlin Hodges (PIT) -0.077 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Robert Griffin in place of Lamar Jackson)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
PIT
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:01 FG BAL (8:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 0 – BAL 3
- Q1 02:42 FG BAL (2:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 12:56 TD PIT (12:56) 24-B.Snell Jr. left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 6
- Q2 01:14 FG BAL (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 7 – BAL 9
- Q2 00:26 TD BAL (:26) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – BAL 15
- Q3 09:58 FG PIT (9:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 10 – BAL 16
- Q4 13:34 FG BAL (13:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 10 – BAL 19
- Q4 04:41 TD BAL (4:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, and recovers at PIT 3. 4-J.Berry to PIT 3 for no gain (49-C.Board). FUMBLES (49-C.Board), RECOVERED by BAL-28-J.Richards at PIT -3. TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – BAL 25
- Q4 04:27 SAF BAL (4:27) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete short right [39-B.Carr]. PENALTY on PIT-6-D.Hodges, Intentional Grounding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. PIT 10 – BAL 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%
(8:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:12) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to BAL 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(2:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 23%
(9:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 19 for 11 yards (31-B.Trawick).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 21%
(5:23) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%
(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(14:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 22, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 18 for -4 yards (31-J.Layne).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%
(9:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%
(4:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 19 for 13 yards (31-B.Trawick).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to BAL 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 37 for 6 yards (41-R.Spillane).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%
(13:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to BAL 2, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-31-J.Layne.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 89Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 76%
(9:19) (Punt formation) 41-A.Levine Sr. up the middle to BAL 13 for 2 yards (41-R.Spillane). Fake punt. Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
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Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 81 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 30%
(4:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, and recovers at PIT 3. 4-J.Berry to PIT 3 for no gain (49-C.Board). FUMBLES (49-C.Board), RECOVERED by BAL-28-J.Richards at PIT -3. TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 45 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 38%
(:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin III pass short middle intended for 83-W.Snead IV INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden (97-C.Heyward) at PIT 40. 23-J.Haden to PIT 40 for no gain (35-G.Edwards).