Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 16

(14:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 22, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 18 for -4 yards (31-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model