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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.40 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP