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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(9:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model