4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin III pass short middle intended for 83-W.Snead IV INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden (97-C.Heyward) at PIT 40. 23-J.Haden to PIT 40 for no gain (35-G.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP