Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 19

(11:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to BAL 2, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-31-J.Layne.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.53 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model