Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(5:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.21 EP
57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model