Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(7:12) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to BAL 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model