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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 89

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) 41-A.Levine Sr. up the middle to BAL 13 for 2 yards (41-R.Spillane). Fake punt. Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.49 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model