4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

NYJ
33.0%
BUF
67.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
BUF 24
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYJ

Tom Compton G Out Calf
Alex Lewis G Out Ankle
Jamal Adams S Questionable Ankle
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Calf
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Back
Kenneth Dixon RB Questionable Illness
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Knee
Brian Poole CB Questionable Ankle
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

BUF

Shaq Lawson DE Out Hamstring
Andre Roberts WR Out Foot
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 13
–
BUF 6

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:58 FG NYJ (10:58) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – BUF 0
  • Q3 01:32 FG BUF (1:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NYJ 3 – BUF 3
  • Q4 13:34 TD NYJ (13:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 82-J.Crowder for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle. NYJ 9 – BUF 3
  • Q4 02:09 FG NYJ (2:09) 9-S.Ficken 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 13 – BUF 3
  • Q4 00:51 FG BUF (:51) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NYJ 13 – BUF 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%

    (8:39) 9-S.Ficken 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 4 yards (50-F.Luvu).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:20) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 9 yards (16-R.Foster).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (1:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (10:58) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 34%

    (6:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to NYJ 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to BUF 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (1:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 21%

    (11:15) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to NYJ 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to NYJ 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 38%

    (6:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (2:09) 9-S.Ficken 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (:51) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.