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New York Jets

7-9 HC Adam Gase
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

10-6 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 ET New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

NYJ
26.7%
BUF
73.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19 12–26
–
BUF 24 17–31
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYJ

Tom Compton G Out Calf
Alex Lewis G Out Ankle
Jamal Adams S Questionable Ankle
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Calf
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Back
Kenneth Dixon RB Questionable Illness
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Knee
Brian Poole CB Questionable Ankle
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

BUF

Shaq Lawson DE Out Hamstring
Andre Roberts WR Out Foot
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 13
–
BUF 6

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:58 FG NYJ (10:58) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – BUF 0
  • Q3 01:32 FG BUF (1:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NYJ 3 – BUF 3
  • Q4 13:34 TD NYJ (13:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 82-J.Crowder for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle. NYJ 9 – BUF 3
  • Q4 02:09 FG NYJ (2:09) 9-S.Ficken 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 13 – BUF 3
  • Q4 00:51 FG BUF (:51) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NYJ 13 – BUF 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%

    (8:39) 9-S.Ficken 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 4 yards (50-F.Luvu).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:20) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 9 yards (16-R.Foster).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (1:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (10:58) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 34%

    (6:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to NYJ 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to BUF 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (1:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 21%

    (11:15) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to NYJ 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to NYJ 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 38%

    (6:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (2:09) 9-S.Ficken 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (:51) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →