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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to NYJ 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model