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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to NYJ 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model