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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model