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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 33

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 9-S.Ficken 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP