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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 12

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 9-S.Ficken 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model