Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 55

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

(9:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model