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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(:51) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model