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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 9 yards (16-R.Foster).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.96 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model