HOU @ TB — 4th & Data

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HC Bill O'Brien

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HC Bruce Arians

Saturday 2019-12-21 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

HOU

35.0%

65.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

TB defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
TB offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
HOU defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
QB edge to HOU: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.141 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.189 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20

–

TB 25

Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

HOU

Jacob Martin LB Out Knee

Benardrick McKinney LB Out Concussion

Jahleel Addae S Questionable Achilles

Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring

Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Ankle

Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Hamstring

Brennan Scarlett LB Questionable Achilles

TB

Beau Allen DT Out Ankle

Chris Godwin WR Out Hamstring

Tanner Hudson TE Out Concussion

Ryan Jensen C Questionable Elbow

Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Thumb

Carlton Davis CB Questionable Ankle

Donovan Smith T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23

–

TB 20

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 14:19 TD HOU (14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TB 0
Q1 11:34 FG HOU (11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 10 – TB 0
Q1 01:01 FG TB (1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. HOU 10 – TB 3
Q2 09:25 TD HOU (9:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – TB 3
Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Shotgun) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – TB 9
Q2 00:20 TD TB (:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – TB 16
Q3 09:33 FG HOU (9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 20 – TB 17
Q3 01:18 FG TB (1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. HOU 20 – TB 20
Q4 07:16 FG HOU (7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 23 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

(11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 28

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 78%

(8:50) 25-P.Barber left end to HOU 11 for 17 yards (39-T.Gipson). PENALTY on TB-18-I.Hyman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.
Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

(8:32) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Blackson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 30. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at HOU 49 for 19 yards (9-M.Gay).
Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 36

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 60%

(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn punts 26 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

(1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(12:34) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to TB 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Schnell to TB 30 for 1 yard (33-A.Moore; 34-T.Jones).
Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 20%

(7:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-D.Carter to HOU 20 for 10 yards (17-J.Watson; 79-P.O'Connor).
Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP

p(convert) 71%

(5:21) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Schnell.
Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 26

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left tackle to TB 24 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

(9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 23

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%

(1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Q4 HOU 4th & 19 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(14:34) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Schnell to TB 32 for 2 yards (38-G.Howell).
Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

(12:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to HOU 12, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

(7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 40 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 49%

(3:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%

(2:27) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 43 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

(:28) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to TB 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Schnell.