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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 84

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to TB 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Schnell to TB 30 for 1 yard (33-A.Moore; 34-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model