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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model