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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Blackson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 30. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at HOU 49 for 19 yards (9-M.Gay).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model