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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.50 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP