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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 71

Houston Texans 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Schnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP