Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 84

Houston Texans 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(14:34) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Schnell to TB 32 for 2 yards (38-G.Howell).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model