Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 26
Houston Texans 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
What Actually Happened
(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left tackle to TB 24 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
The Three Options
GO
+2.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
KICK
+1.07 EP
- 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 18% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
