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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 14

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model