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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CIN
31.5%
MIA
68.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) -0.021 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.066 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 19
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: MIA by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
John Miller G Out Concussion

MIA

Chandler Cox RB Questionable Shoulder
Evan Boehm C Questionable Ankle
Taco Charlton DE Questionable Ankle
Jason Sanders K Questionable Illness
Zach Sieler DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 35
–
MIA 38

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:39 TD MIA (8:39) 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 94-C.Wilkins to CIN 1 for no gain (30-J.Bates III). FUMBLES (30-J.Bates III), and recovers at CIN -3. TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 05:05 TD MIA (5:05) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 10:51 FG CIN (10:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – MIA 14
  • Q2 02:27 TD MIA (2:27) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – MIA 20
  • Q2 00:07 FG CIN (:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – MIA 21
  • Q3 08:31 TD MIA (8:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-C.Lawson]. CIN 6 – MIA 27
  • Q3 03:45 TD CIN (3:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – MIA 28
  • Q4 11:16 TD MIA (11:16) 37-M.Gaskin up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – MIA 34
  • Q4 06:15 TD CIN (6:15) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 87-C.Uzomah for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 18 – MIA 35
  • Q4 00:33 TD CIN (:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 25 – MIA 35
  • Q4 00:04 TD CIN (:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 85-T.Eifert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – MIA 35
  • Q5 00:04 FG MIA (:04) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. CIN 35 – MIA 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:05) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis to MIA 25 for 8 yards (56-H.Nickerson).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:39) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to MIA 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis to MIA 25 for 10 yards (17-S.Morgan; 29-T.McRae). PENALTY on MIA-86-M.Hollins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-D.Phillips to CIN 20 for -1 yards (42-P.Laird).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (10:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:29) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 17 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:56) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to MIA 6, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:59) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 60 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at MIA 49 for 17 yards (42-P.Laird). PENALTY on CIN-29-T.McRae, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 44.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 89-T.Davis.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 89-T.Davis.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 37%

    (:58) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 30%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-J.Ross III pushed ob at MIA 34 for 12 yards (32-L.Stephens).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis pushed ob at MIA 17 for 3 yards (57-G.Pratt).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 62%

    (3:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 74%

    (3:12) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.