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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 17 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model