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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to MIA 6, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP