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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model